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Tag: economic indicators

  • CCLEI Experiences Mild Growth in November

    CCLEI Experiences Mild Growth in November

    The Composite Leading Economic Index (CCLEI) trend up in November, reflecting a mild increase in the annual growth rate for the Cypriot economy. According to a report from the University of Cyprus, the CCLEI recorded a year-on-year increase of 1.8% in November, maintaining a trajectory similar to previous months.

    Photo: financialmirror.com

    Cclei: Consistency in Economic Indicators

    This growth rate aligns closely with the CCLEI’s performance in preceding months, where it marked a 1.9% increase in October and a steady 1.8% in September 2025. The consistent figures suggest that despite various challenges, the economy is sustaining a positive outlook.

    Factors Driving Growth

    The report highlights several contributing factors that buoyed the CCLEI in November. Notably, an improvement in the weighted Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) for both Cyprus and the broader euro area has played a crucial role. Additionally, the positive performance across various sectors—particularly tourist arrivals, retail trade, and property sales—has provided further support for the index.

    Geopolitical Context and Economic Sentiment

    Despite the encouraging growth, the report acknowledges that this positive trajectory is unfolding amid heightened uncertainty and geopolitical tensions. The ongoing dynamics in the region are influencing economic sentiment, which remains a critical factor in future predictions.

    Energy Prices and Production Trends

    Another aspect noted in the report is the decrease in the price of Brent crude oil, which has had a beneficial impact on the economic landscape. However, not all indicators have been positive. There was a downward trend in the temperature-adjusted volume of electricity production, which is a significant component of the CCLEI. This decline has exerted a negative influence on the overall index performance for November.

    Looking Ahead

    The CCLEI’s stability suggests that while the Cypriot economy faces challenges, there are also key areas of strength that could support continued growth. The interplay between various economic factors will be crucial for maintaining this momentum in the coming months.

  • Economic Sentiment in Cyprus Sees Positive Shift

    Economic Sentiment in Cyprus Sees Positive Shift

    Economic sentiment in Cyprus recovered in October, with the Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI-CypERC) rising by 2.0 points. This increase follows a downturn in September, when the indicator fell to 102.1 from 103.7 in August.

    Photo: financialmirror.com

    • Similarly, the Construction Confidence Indicator also rose, buoyed by better order book levels and a positive shift in employment expectations among firms in this sector.
    • The Industry Confidence Indicator experienced a small decrease, primarily due to less favourable assessments regarding current order books and lowered production expectations.
    • Furthermore, expectations regarding the overall economic conditions in Cyprus have also deteriorated among consumers, reflecting a more cautious outlook.
    • The report from the University of Cyprus highlights these mixed signals in economic sentiment, indicating a complex landscape as the nation navigates its recovery.

    Economic sentiment: Business Confidence on the Rise

    The Economics Research Centre of the University of Cyprus attributes the uptick in overall economic sentiment to a rebound in business confidence, particularly within the services and construction sectors. These areas had previously experienced significant declines over the last two months.

    Improvements in Services and Construction

    In October, the Services Confidence Indicator saw a notable increase, reversing the downward trend of the last two months. This improvement was driven by enhanced assessments of the recent business situation and more optimistic views on past and expected turnover.

    Similarly, the Construction Confidence Indicator also rose, buoyed by better order book levels and a positive shift in employment expectations among firms in this sector.

    Retail Trade and Industry Indicators Shift

    <pConversely, the Retail Trade Confidence Indicator recorded a decline. This drop was attributed to deteriorating views on recent sales and stock levels, alongside further downward revisions in sales expectations.

    The Industry Confidence Indicator experienced a small decrease, primarily due to less favourable assessments regarding current order books and lowered production expectations.

    Consumer Sentiment Takes a Hit

    While business confidence has improved, the Consumer Confidence Indicator saw a decline in October, reversing the positive trend of the previous two months. Consumers reported a worsening assessment of their financial situations and a weaker intent to make major purchases.

    Furthermore, expectations regarding the overall economic conditions in Cyprus have also deteriorated among consumers, reflecting a more cautious outlook.

    Economic Uncertainty Eases

    <pOn a more positive note, the Economic Uncertainty Indicator decreased to 11.7 points in October, down from 15.8 in September. This decline suggests a reduction in business uncertainty across most sectors, with the exception of industry, where uncertainty rose slightly. Although consumer uncertainty did increase, it remains relatively low across all income groups.

    The report from the University of Cyprus highlights these mixed signals in economic sentiment, indicating a complex landscape as the nation navigates its recovery.

  • CCLEI Reports Moderate Growth in June Amid Economic Pressures

    CCLEI Reports Moderate Growth in June Amid Economic Pressures

    The Cyprus Composite Leading Economic Index (CCLEI) sees moderate growth in June 2025, indicating a continued but tempered upward trend in the country’s economic outlook, according to a report from the University of Cyprus.

    Photo: financialmirror.com

    Constructed by the Economics Research Centre (CypERC), the CCLEI recorded a year-on-year increase of 2.3% in June, reflecting a decrease from previous months, which saw growth rates of 2.6% in May and 3.1% in April. This moderation points to a slowdown in the growth rates of individual indicators that feed into the index.

    Significantly, the report highlights that the economic climate in the euro area has deteriorated, contributing to the slowdown. This aligns with a weakening growth rate of the Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) in Cyprus, suggesting that broader economic pressures are at play. Additionally, weekly data on electricity production, adjusted for temperature, showed a decline in annual growth rates.

    Despite these challenges, several factors supported the growth of the CCLEI. Positive contributions stemmed from various sectors, including property sales, an increase in tourist arrivals, and a rise in transactions made with Cypriot credit cards. Retail trade sales volume also showed encouraging signs, suggesting resilience in domestic consumption.

    Furthermore, a notable decline in Brent crude oil prices over the same period has provided some relief, potentially easing inflationary pressures that could affect consumer spending and investment. This combination of factors indicates a complex economic landscape where growth is being bolstered by specific sectors, even as challenges loom from external conditions.

    The report’s authors caution that the geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East could significantly impact international energy markets. This ongoing uncertainty necessitates careful monitoring and assessment of the medium-term economic prospects for Cyprus. As external pressures mount, the economic outlook remains cautiously optimistic yet vigilant.